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Case files

A case file is one worked example of the Method: a narrative or a label followed through dated public text, with its sources, what went unread and any prediction it leads to. Files are numbered in the order they are published.

  1. “One in six Americans” is a CDC estimate from data mostly of 2000 to 2008

    File 4

    Every estimate uses the 2006 population, no later CDC total including unspecified agents was found, and federal texts printed it in 2026.

    Draft, November 6, 2026

    Read the file

  2. No Federal Register item cites NHTSA’s 2018 sheet on “94 percent”

    File 3

    How a survey figure with a stated range and a stated limit became “94 percent of serious crashes are due to human error”, and where it stayed after NHTSA’s page changed.

    Draft, November 6, 2026

    Read the file

  3. The slide reported as the source of “232 times” prints no multiple

    File 2

    The Navy slide reported as the source of “232 times” prints no multiple, and its block of icons matches the size of a year of UN-recorded merchant ship deliveries.

    Draft, November 6, 2026

    Read the file

  4. Five of 26 state phone laws filed under “bell to bell” use the phrase

    File 1

    How one school phrase has carried three meanings, and where it appears in the laws filed under it.

    Draft, November 5, 2026

    Read the file

    Pennsylvania Senate Bill 1014, Session of 2025, printer’s number 1697. Page 1, AN ACT through line 12: the struck title and the struck section heading.
    Struck in print: “bell-to-bell phone-free policy” in the title and in the section heading. The print strikes the earlier text. It does not drop the phrase: a new title begins on page 6, “BELL-TO-BELL MOBILE DEVICE POLICY,” and the phrase stays in a heading on page 7. Text shown struck through is left out of the count. General Assembly of Pennsylvania, May 6, 2026. Highlight added. Source

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